Saturday, September 28, 2019

US Impeachment Inquiry: My Prediction

As a political theorist I never really stick my neck out to try to make predictions about how the real world of politics will unfold (which is like trying to predict the weather!). But here I will detail what I think is the most likely outcome of the current impeachment inquiry into President Trump- I think Trump will actually resign before the end of the year.

I know this outcome will sound very unlikely given how tenacious a political opponent Trump is (he doesn't back away from any fight), but in this case I actually think he has backed himself into a corner with no real exit option. If the Trump Administration delays/obstructs the impeachment inquiry it will look very bad for him politically (costing him re-election). And if he provides the documents and testimony Democrats are seeking things will look even worse for him (they already look unsalvageable in my opinion, either because he will be impeached or at least lose the election as more troubling details come to light). And what this does is put the Republicans in Congress and the Senate in a "no win" situation. So far many of these players have remained quite. But they can't stay like that for long.

Many political pundits have expressed puzzlement with the fact that the Trump Administration released the phone memo this week that paraphrased the conversation between President Trump and President Zelensky. It certainly was out of character given that his modus operandi is to be uncooperative. Some pundits have suggested the Trump Administration released the memo because they think there is nothing to hide. I actually suspect the opposite is the case. I think it is very likely that the Trump Administration already realized that this recorded phone conversation to the Ukraine President, in conjunction with the whistle blower's complaint, and the attempts to cover it all up are BIG issues and ones that Trump's Presidency is unlikely to survive. I think the memo was released as the first (gradual) part of the resignation process. And now the Trump Administration's focus will be on how to have Trump exit in a manner that (1) makes him look as good as possible- which in Trump's eyes is as the victim of the liberal media and a Democratic conspiracy and (2) leave the Republican Party intact. That is the best end-game for both Trump and for the Republican Party (not to mention also for the American people!).

That is just my two cents worth as an uniformed observer trying to make sense of political developments south of the border. It is a very sad state of affairs, but also one that could be very instructive to the future health of American politics.

Cheers,
Colin

UPdate: and (3) before Trump resigns, he will try to inflict maximal damage on the Democratic party and their potential Presidential candidates. Of course that has always been on his radar anyways (and what caused his impeachment problems), but it will get even worse (and has since to whistle blower story broke last week).

Cheers,
Colin